An engineer-friend, officer of the Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers of the Philippines, Inc. (IIEE) sent me a presentation by Engr. Garcia in late 2014. I copy-paste many of the slides here, no commentary (except a sentence in italics), just sharing this with my blog readers and followers.
“On ‘power crisis’, IIEE Proposed Solutions”
by Engr. Adelino V. Garcia, Jr., 2014
Metrics of Power Stability. To achieve a stable supply of electricity for a certain PEAK demand, the following Capacities MUST ALL be provided or satisfied:
- Load Following Frequency Regulation (LFFR) = 2.8% (at least) of Peak Demand
- Spinning Reserve = 10.2% (at least) of Peak Demand
- Stand By Reserve = Capacity of Single Biggest Generating Unit in a Grid = 10.2% of Peak Demand.
Ancillary Capacity = LFFR + Spinning Reserve + Stand-by Reserve = 23.2% of Peak Demand.
Required Capacity = Peak Demand + Ancillary Capacity.
For Luzon Grid, the Capacity Required to be Constructed Now (CRCN) for year N is at least:
CRCN = (Capacity Deficit from N-1 to N-2) + (Annual Capacities Required for N to N+3).
Thus, CRCN for 2017 = (Capacity deficit from 2015 to 2016, if any) + Required capacities for 2017 to 2020.
A. Structural Solution:
Encourage Distributed or Embedded Generation Technologies (DGTs) that
- localize generation to demand centers and improve system stability and power quality.
- reduce pressure to Transmission Systems and Improves System Stability.
- provide localization of capacity in case of major PGF outage.
B. Technical Solution:
To address generation cost issues for DGTs due to economy of scales, select the most efficient technologies for capacities between 1MW to 20MW.
Pyrolysis or Gasification Technology can achieve Plant Electrical Efficiencies as high as 33% for capacities as low as 500kW, using Coal as Fuel (Note: Efficiency is Equivalent to 300MW PGF).
Typical Gasified Coal Plant Capability — Can provide Base, Mid-Merit, and Peak Power Supply For Short – Medium – Long Term Capacity Solution.
Solar PV Technology — Can provide Day Peak Power Supply For Short – Medium – Long Term Capacity Solution.
* Day Peak can range from 15% to 35% of night peak demand
* Solar Penetration can be optimized around 15% to 30% of Peak Demand
* LCOE can be as low as PhP 5/kWh, rate impact can be as low as PhP 0.05 to Php 0.10 per kWh
* ECs MUST OWN to have economic benefit from the Solar PV Capacity
* 0.5MW to 1MW can be delivered in 10-12months
Run of River Hydroelectric Technology — Can provide Base, Mid-Merit, and Peak Power Supply For Short – Medium – Long Term Capacity Solution
* ECs MUST OWN to have economic benefit from the embedded hydroelectric capacity
* Generation cost is about PhP 5.0 to 3.5/kWh, from the 1st to 10th year of commercial operation
* Generation cost is about PhP 1.0 to 1.5/kWh, from the 11st to 25th year of commercial operation
* LCOE can be as low as PhP 3.00/kWh
* Delivery can be 20 to 24 months
* CAR Region has at least 1.5 GW to 2GW of hydroelectric potential
C. Policy Solutions
- National Government to Mandate “One Stop Shop” for Permitting and Regulatory Compliance and reduce development time from 3 years to 6 months.
- Government funds allocated to procure modular GenSets (PhP 18 – PhP 21/kWh), SHOULD rather be extended to DUs/ECs as Low Cost Equity to procure high efficiency embedded DGT/PGFs, reducing Capacity Supply Cost, saving on Transmission and Systems Loss Cost (PhP 2.00/kWh).
- Effective Cost of Capacity at 15kV Bus are composed of:
Generation Cost – PhP 5.25 to 5.5/kWh
TX and Ancillary Cost – PhP 1.8 to 2.0/kWh
Systems Loss Cost – PhP 0.50 to 0.65/kWh
Cost at 15kV Bus – PhP 7.50 to PhP 8.05/kWh
DGT Generation Cost – PhP 6.5 to 7.25/kWh
LFO Power Modules – PhP 15 to 21/kWh
HFO PGFs – PhP 11 to 13.5/kWh.
- If each Luzon EC will install as DGT/PGF about 25% to 30% of their respective Peak Demand, this capacity is estimated at 900MW to 1GW, that can be implemented in 12-18 months.
If another 30%- 50% are on IPP Scheme, but still DGT/PGFs, this will be another 1GW to 1.75GW that can be implemented in 20 to 24 months. That will be 1.9GW to 2.75GW Capacity in 20 to 24 months, MUCH LESS THAN THE 48 to 60 months required a 1GW large IPP Plant.