Electricity competition, EPIRA, and WESM

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last week, May 09, 2018.

bw

Last Monday, I discussed business competition in general and the role of the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC).

The theme will be continued in this piece and it will discuss electricity competition in particular, especially after I was able to interview PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan, the CEO of the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC) and Chairman of Transition Committee Oscar Ala and PEMC Spokesperson Atty. Nino Juan.

The Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 or RA 9136 has drastically liberalized the Philippines electricity sector with at least three important provisions: (1) deregulation and demonopolization of the power generation sector, (2) creation of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), and (3) liberalization and demonopolization of electricity distribution via Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA).

With these and other provisions of EPIRA, the questions to ask, among others would be:

(1) Were there many private generation companies (gencos) that entered the market competing with each other?

(2) Were there many retail electricity suppliers (RES) that entered the market competing with each other?

(3) Were there many players, gencos and distributors, that use the WESM spot market competition? And more importantly, (4) Have electricity prices for consumers gone down?

The short answer is YES to all four questions.

For gencos for instance, before EPIRA, the National Power Corp. (Napocor) was the state-owned power generation monopoly, which also incurred huge losses and public debts for many years.

As of April 2018, there were 113 gencos in the Luzon-Visayas grid alone and all of them are WESM participants. Excluded are gencos in the Mindanao grid which is not part of WESM yet. Of these 113 gencos, five players have become more efficient and more moneyed than others, except perhaps the government-owned Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation (PSALM), which still owns previous Napocor-owned power plants, mostly hydro facilities in Mindanao and the Malaya plant in Rizal.

For retail competition, the number of contestable customers (CCs) or those with monthly peak demand of 750 KW or higher and have the freedom to pick their own service providers — such as electric cooperatives (ECs) and private distribution utilities (DUs) — have increased. RCOA implementation however, has been issued an indefinite TRO by the Supreme Court in February 2017 and this resulted in a decline in number of CCs.

Electricity_1_050918

Here are the numbers for comparative electricity prices that include two types of customers, the captive market (small consumers who must stay with their DUs or ECs) and contestable market (they can leave their DUs or ECs and choose their own RES).

opinion-oplas_new

Contestable customers are able to enjoy lower average prices, P6.91/kWh, than captive customers that pay an average price of P7.78/kWh.

So there you see it.

Despite the noise created by certain sectors that EPIRA and WESM are not working, which leads them to call for a return to the old scheme of nationalization, these data show that indeed electricity competition is working.

It is true that Philippine electricity prices in general remain higher than most of our neighbors in the region but that is because of other factors like (a) many taxes especially the high VAT of 12% applied in all parts of the electricity supply chain, from generation to transmission, distribution and supply, even the system loss; (b) many charges in our monthly electricity bill including universal charge, system loss charge, feed-in-tariff (FiT) for favored renewables.

The transition of PEMC, the market operator of WESM, into a real Independent Market Operator (IMO) as explicitly specified in EPIRA may soon become a reality.

As a result, there will be no more government energy agencies and bureaucracies at the PEMC Board. Good work, PEMC Transition Team.

Advertisements

Consumer choice in electricity supply and prices

* This is my column in BusinessWorld on April 30, 2018.

bw

In several statistics comparing electricity prices in Asia, the Philippines often ranks as the third most expensive in Asia next to Japan, Singapore, or Hong Kong.

Here are numbers from three different sources: (1) The Lantau Group (TLG), “Global Benchmark Study of Residential Electricity Tariffs,” May 2013. The study prepared for the Energy Market Authority (EMA), Singapore; (2) Enerdata, cited by Chris Herrera, “Optimization of Supply” presented at EPDP lecture, UPSE, October 26, 2017; and (3) International Energy Consultants (IEC), “Regional/Global Comparison of Retail Electricity Tariffs: Executive Summary,” May, 2016.

Electricity_042018

In the IEC study, subsidized markets are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan. Unsubsidized and deregulated markets are Japan, Philippines, and Singapore. Hong Kong is unsubsidized but it is unsure if it’s deregulated.

The Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 has several provisions to help reduce Philippines’ electricity prices. The deregulation of power generation encouraged many private power producers to compete with each other. The Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) average prices for instance have been declining, in Pesos/kWh: 6.43 in 2010, 3.80 in 2011, 4.87 in 2012, 3.85 in 2013, 4.40 in 2014, 3.47 in 2015, and 2.84 in 2016.

The retail competition and open access (RCOA) under EPIRA is also an excellent provision. RCOA allows the “contestable consumers” or those with average electricity consumption of 1,000 KW (or 1 MW), a level which will later be reduced to 750 KW a day, to choose their own Retail Electricity Suppliers (RES) and leave their existing private distribution utility (DU) or electric cooperative (EC).

With RCOA, electricity consumers can set their own conditions from their RES.

Some can demand that they be supplied 100% only from renewables even if the price is higher, others can demand that they be supplied only from cheap and stable sources. Small customers can also aggregate their demand or allow an aggregator to pool their combined demand to become contestable customers.

There are two recent reports in BusinessWorld related to this.

(1) SC asked to lift TRO on retail power suppliers (April 24)

(2). DoE may step in as licensing body for retail power suppliers (April 12).

Report #1 is about Bayan Muna (BM) petition at the Supreme Court (SC) that it should lift its indefinite temporary restraining order (TRO) it issued in February 2017 barring the Department of Energy (DoE) and the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) from further implementing RCOA and allow the contestable customers to choose their own RES.

I was surprised that the pro-state intervention and pro-big government Bayan Muna suddenly turned around and campaigned for pro-market, pro-consumer choice — that consumers be given more freedom to choose an RES from the 23 short-listed by the ERC. Turns out that Bayan Muna is only doing this to further fight Meralco as a monopoly in electricity distribution in Metro Manila and some surrounding provinces. However, the group is silent about the Constitutional provision granting monopoly power to all other DUs and ECs in the country.

Report #2 is about the DoE studying the legality of being the issuer of licenses for RES. There are no updates about this yet.

The indefinite TRO has a very adverse result, reducing consumer choice, especially the contestable customers.

Those who consume 750-999 KW a day and are willing to move voluntarily to RES cannot do so because they will be disallowed by the ERC and PEMC. And even those who consume 1MW or more per day that are already qualified for RCOA are hesitant to have power contracts with RES because of the continuing uncertainty.

The ERC also does not and cannot issue new RES licenses or renew expiring ones, resulting in reduced RES competition.

Even some DUs also face uncertainties whether to get additional generation contracts or not for contestable customers because these customers can leave them anytime once the TRO is lifted.

Government prohibitions should be kept to the minimum. The EPIRA law has already succeeded in reducing electricity prices and expanded the country’s power supply capacity so why suspend more customer choice and empowerment?

The SC indeed should lift its indefinite TRO because it is anti-consumers and anti-business. Existing DUs have the freedom to put up their own RES so that contestable customers who have left the DU franchise system can still be their customers. Or the SC can strike down certain ERC resolutions so that it can issue new resolutions and regulations to implement RCOA and further expand consumer choice.

ERC paralysis and implications for consumers

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last February 01, 2018.

bw

Despite a significant increase in the Philippines’ power generation capacity in recent years, the country’s installed capacity and electricity production remains small compared to the ASEAN-6 and North East Asian neighbors.

For instance, its installed capacity of 21.2 gigawatt (GW) in 2016 was what Vietnam has about 10 years before. Vietnam now has twice the Philippines’ installed capacity (see table).

Electricity_020118

A reliable and stable supply of energy results in economic development.

More power plants mean more electricity generation; more electricity generate will mean more competition for power supply and hence, lower electricity prices for the consumers.

However, an unfortunate turn of events might prevent the Philippines from realizing this both in the short- and medium-term. The Ombudsman has issued a one-year suspension for four of five Commissioners of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) last Dec. 21, 2017.

The officials were charged with violation of Republic Act No. 3019 (Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act) in connection with the revised implementation date of the competitive selection process (CSP). The Ombudsman also said the suspended officials favored a few power supply contracts.

With only one Commissioner — Chair Devanadera — allowed to work, here are some of the serious implications and problems.

  1. No deliberations and resolutions on applications for approval of power supply agreements (PSAs) and projects for transmission and distribution by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), distribution utilities, and electric cooperatives. An estimated P1.588 trillion worth of energy-related projects and capital outlays would be affected.
  1. The inability to act on petitions for rate adjustments and pass-on charges; consumer complaints, violations of industry players of existing laws and regulations.
  1. Non-issuance or renewal of certificates of compliance (CoC) or provisional authorities to operate power plants.
  1. The inability to award procurement contracts, like the ERC meter seals and stickers being placed on electric meters of the distribution utilities, among others.

With these problems, among the solutions would be the following:

  1. The President should appoint OIC Commissioners to temporarily act on behalf of the four suspended officials until the suspension order has lapsed in late December this year and the suspended officials will be back in office.
  1. Despite ERC paralysis, DoE will allow or accredit players with expiring or pending CoCs to operate and trade at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). The required ERC approval of CoCs will resume only when there is quorum already at the Commission. DoE Secretary Cusi said that “about 26 generation companies with a total of 3,314.60 MW generating capacities have expired or have expiring CoCs in 2018… Additional new capacities of at least 720 MWs are also expected to go into commercial operation within the next few months. If not allowed to participate in the WESM, the available electricity supply in the market will be curtailed, which can result in higher market clearing prices.”
  1. DoE should also be able to accredit or renew Retail Electricity Suppliers (RES) with pending or expiring licenses, until the ERC paralysis is resolved.

Several government branches and constitutional bodies must always put in mind the welfare of the consumers. The inflationary pressure of TRAIN law (higher oil prices, higher coal generation prices, among others) is already mounting.

The “vested interest” of consumers — cheaper, competitively-priced, and stable energy supplies — should prevail over vested interests of politicians and regulators. There should be more power generation companies and power plants, more electricity distributors and retailers — all competing with each other to meet the consumers’ “vested interest.”

EPIRA is 16 years old and it is working

Reposting this nice article today by a friend, Orly Oxales.

orly

It was 16 years ago when Congress enacted Republic Act No. 9136, or the Electricity Power Industry Reform Act. The law was envisioned to make the local power supply reliable and affordable by fostering competition in the industry. Broadly speaking, anyone who is old enough to remember the blackout-laden years of the 1990s would perhaps agree that Epira achieved its minimum goal of at least bringing some semblance of stability into an otherwise volatile industry.

By a stroke of coincidence, this June saw a record decrease in electricity rates, perhaps a testament to Epira’s general effectiveness. After a P0.29-per-kWh reduction in May, distribution utility firm Manila Electric Co. announced an additional P1.43 of decrease for June, effectively bringing down the rate to P8.17 per kWh, the lowest in nearly eight years, since December of 2009. For a typical residential household consuming 200 kWh, this translates to a P285 decrease in electricity bill.

The June rate also reflects the refund of Meralco’s over-recovery on pass-through charges amounting to P6.9 billion from 2014 to 2016. Meralco successfully petitioned the implementation of the refund with the Energy Regulatory Commission, which granted the request on May 11.

To many, that current retail rates are the same eight years ago, combined with evidently improved distribution efficiency (systems loss at an all-time low), record low outages, and increased innovation, demonstrate that Epira was achieving its intended vision for the power sector. It has let the market work as it should, foremost of which was successfully allowing private sector investments to drive strong load growth.

Indeed, many stakeholders believe that it is private sector involvement—the much-needed lifeline to the then ailing, notoriously corrupt state-controlled energy bureaucracy—that has proven to be Epira’s most vital legacy. After all, the series of big-ticket investments in the power sector could not have been possible without the landmark law.

“Epira came in June 2001. Maybe, from the start, it was going slow. But from my personal observation, there’s a lot of power projects that came on stream for the last three or four years, [and] a lot of capacity still coming on stream. Not bad at all, because it takes years to put to bed a power project,” Emmanuel de Dios, GE Philippines CEO and formerly Department of Energy undersecretary, told Business Mirror.

Among others, this requirement for long-term big-ticket investments is the wisdom behind Epira’s market-driven stance. It had the foresight to anticipate burgeoning domestic demand for energy, which some estimates say will triple by 2040. It thus recognizes the pivotal role that a stable energy supply plays in economic development, an area where a vibrant, competitive investment market is non-negotiable.

Another of Epira’s innovations, the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), has, as envisioned, become a venue for market competition, resulting in fair and competitive power prices. In fact, overall generation charge has decreased this June by P1.0253 per kWh, from P4.88 in May to P3.86 this month. A crucial factor here is the P1.25-decrease in power sourced from WESM. It is important to note that this became possible despite the expected higher power demand in Luzon in the summer months, in addition to fewer plant outages.

In the last two summers, we thankfully did not see a repeat of the power price hikes of 2013. Brown-outs were minimal. This is encouraging but one or two breakdowns from base load power plants will quickly cause debilitating outages. To sustain economic momentum, we need to encourage more investments in power plants that use the newest technologies and operate with the highest efficiency. These power plants will ensure reliable supply at the most affordable prices while at the same time being compliant with environmental regulations.

Environmentally friendly renewable energy, about which there is much hype, is still an expensive and unstable source that threatens to further burden all consumers with another move to increase rates. It is a policy that needs serious re-thinking and merits a congressional investigation on how much and where all the Feed In Tariff—which by now might be in the billions­—was spent.

At the end of the day, it is the consumers—from individual households to multi-billion-peso industries—that ultimately benefit from an energized power sector. Stable prices lead to savings. Increased operational efficiency of generation companies lessen blackouts. No one is exempt. Now on its 16th year, the Epira is by no means a perfect piece of legislation—domestic power rates remain one of the most expensive in the region—but it has successfully laid the groundwork for a buoyant energy sector.

The quest for more stable and cheaper electricity in the ASEAN

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last April 28, 2017.

bw

High economic growth means high energy demand coming from stable supply and competitively priced energy, not unstable, intermittent, and expensive energy. This is what the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies need as their high GDP growth of 4.7% in 2016 is projected to improve to 4.8% this year and 5% in 2018 (ADB data), much faster than the projected growth of other regions and economic blocs.

One week before the ASEAN 50th Summit Meeting, the 7th Annual Meeting of the Nuclear Energy Cooperation Sub-Sector Network (NEC-SSN) hosted by the Department of Energy (DoE) was held. A pre-feasibility study showed that many ASEAN countries are in favor of using nuclear energy for commercial use. The ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) also sees nuclear energy as a long-term power source for the member-countries.

The intensive infrastructure projects of the Duterte administration require huge amount of energy. The proposed 25-km. subway in Metro Manila by the Japan government alone would require high energy supply for the dozens of trains running simultaneously below the ground plus dozens of train stations below and above ground.

Lots of base-load power plants, those that can run 24-7 all year round except when they are on scheduled shut down for maintenance, will be needed. These baseload plants include coal, natural gas, geothermal, and nuclear. Hydro plants too but only during the rainy season.

How reliable and how costly are the different power generation plants that the Philippines and other ASEAN countries will need? This table will help provide the answer as I have not seen data for the ASEAN yet.

o4big_042817

Power reliability is represented by plant capacity factor or actual power output relative to its installed capacity. So unstable, intermittent sources like wind and solar have low capacity factor, not good for manufacturing plants, hotels, hospitals, malls, shops, and houses that require steady electricity supply.

Power cost is represented by the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), composed of capital expenditures (capex), fixed and regular operation and maintenance (O&M), variable O&M, and transmission investment. CCS means carbon capture and sequestration.

The cost of ancillary services for intermittent sources, the standby power plants if the wind does not blow or if it rains make solar plants temporarily inutile, does not seem to be reflected in the transmission cost though.

ASEAN countries like the Philippines will need those power plants that have (a) high reliability, high capacity factor, (b) low LCOE, and (c) low or zero need for ancillary services.

However, more ASEAN countries are entertaining more solar PV and wind onshore since they were convinced to believe that they need unstable yet expensive electricity to “save the planet.”

During the Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) lecture last April 20 at the UP School of Economics (UPSE), Ms. Melinda L. Ocampo, president of the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC) talked about “Electricity Trading and Pricing in the Philippine WESM.” Ms. Ocampo discussed among others, the new management system where the interval for electricity dispatch has been improved from one hour to only five minutes.

I pointed during the open forum that the imposition of the lousy scheme feed-in-tariff (FiT) or more expensive electricity for favored renewables was unleashed even to consumers in Mindanao, which is not part of WESM, and is not connected to the Luzon-Visayas grids. The FiT-Allowance that is reflected in our monthly electricity bill has risen from 4 centavos/kWh in 2015 to 12.40 centavos in 2016 and this year, we should brace for at least 26 centavos/kWh soon because the 23 centavos petition by Transco starting January 2017 has not been acted by the Energy Regulatory Commission yet.

The issue of stable and affordable energy will be tackled in the forthcoming BusinessWorld Economic Forum this May 19, 2017 at Shangri-La BGC. Session 4 “Fuelling Future Growth”of the conference will have the following speakers: John Eric T. Francia, president & CEO of Ayala Corp. (AC) Energy Holdings, Inc.; Antonio R. Moraza, president & COO of Aboitiz Power Corporation; Josephine Gotianun Yap, president of Filinvest Development Corp., and DoE Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi. Yap and Cusi are still to confirm the invite.

Local energy players will have a big role in ensuring that the Philippines should have stable and competitively priced energy supply today and tomorrow.

Electric cooperatives and unstable power supply

* This  is my article in BusinessWorld last February 08, 2017.

bw
Almost everything we do now requires energy and if we stay in non-mobile structures like buildings and houses, everything requires electricity. Energy precedes development so unstable and expensive energy means unstable and poor economy.

Given the technological revolution the world has experienced in recent decades, it remains a tragedy that many countries still have low electrification rates and very low electricity consumption per capita.

Unfortunately, the Philippines is among those countries with still not-so-high electrification rates until today and its electricity use is among the lowest in the ASEAN (see table).

o4_020817

Electricity consumption in kWh per capita is high for the following developed and emerging Asian economies: Taiwan, 10,460; South Korea, 10,430; Brunei, 9,550; Singapore, 8,840; Hong Kong, 5,930; Malaysia, 4,470 (6.5x of PHL); China, 3,770; Thailand, 2,490 (3.6x of PHL). These countries and economies also have 100% electrification rate except perhaps China.

There are two reasons why the Philippines has a relatively low electrification rate and low per capita electricity use.

First is due to its archipelagic geography.

Many municipalities and villages are located in islands that are off-grid and, as a result, their residents rely on biomass like firewood for cooking and gensets running on diesel for lighting although some do use solar.

Second is due to politics.

There are not enough base-load power plants that can provide electricity 24/7 even in major islands like Luzon and Mindanao. This is because of political opposition by certain groups to cheap and stable fossil fuel sources like coal. Also, there are many bureaucracies (national and local) that discourage the quick construction and commissioning of new power plants. There are also weak, inefficient, and even corrupt electric cooperatives (ECs) that are given monopoly privileges to serve certain provinces and municipalities.

There are 119 ECs in the country from Luzon to Mindanao plus private distribution utilities like Meralco and those in PEZA/ecozones. All ECs are supervised and regulated by the National Electrification Administration (NEA).

Of the 119 ECs, some remain financially weak and problematic until today, like the Abra EC (ABRECO) and Albay EC (ALECO). These two ECs are so deep in debt they are unable to provide stable electricity to their customer-members and have arrears with power generating companies (gencos) that supply them electricity at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM).

According to National Electrification Administration (NEA), from 2004 to 2014, it has released subsidies to ABRECO worth P56.6 million for the implementation of the Sitio Electrification Program (SEP), Barangay Line Enhancement Program, and its procurement of a modular generator set.

For ALECO, it was badly managed and was on the brink of bankruptcy that local business and political leaders proposed and supported its corporatization and take over by more established energy players.

In January 2014, ALECO was acquired by San Miguel Energy Corp.’s subsidiary Global Power Holdings Corp. (SMC Global) and renamed it as Albay Power and Energy Corporation (APEC). ALECO then was the first EC in the country that was corporatized.

Upon takeover, SMC Global and APEC inherited a P4-billion debt by ALECO including overdue payments at WESM of nearly P1 billion.

More than two years after the takeover, the debt ballooned to P5.6 billion, mainly due to low collection efficiency. APEC said its database of customers has been sabotaged since about 80% of its customers are not on the database.

APEC resorted to disconnecting some big customers that do not pay but disgruntled ALECO employees and officers have resorted to reconnecting them.

The ball and accountability is in the hands of NEA. Why are these things allowed to continue for years, to the detriment of paying customers and generation companies that are not paid on time.

In 2015, NEA reported that it lent a total of P2-billion loans to 51 ECs to finance their capital expenditure projects, rehabilitate their power distribution systems, among others.

NEA should perhaps consider slowly stepping out of the sector and push all the ECs to move towards full corporatization with full exposure to expansion or bankruptcy. The sector that needs protection should be the electricity consumers, not the ECs.

Consumers should be protected from expensive and unstable electricity as well as disconnection because the DU or EC has been disconnected by gencos and WESM for huge unpaid accounts.

The NEA, along with other government agencies in the energy sector, should look at the above table again, and try to find out why our electrification rate and electricity use are at the level of Pakistan and Mongolia instead of at the level of Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Bienvenido Oplas, Jr. is the President of Minimal Government Thinkers and a Fellow of SEANET and Stratbase-ADRi.

Rising feed in tariff (FIT) due to more wind-solar power

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last January 24, 2017.

bw

Cheaper electricity and stable energy supply are among the important components to have fast and sustainable economic growth.

On Jan. 17, the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC) sent a press release saying that “effective settlement spot prices (ESSPs) in the wholesale electricity spot market (WESM) plunged to P2.28/kWH for the December 2016 billing period which is the lowest since January 2011. ESSPs refer to the average prices paid by wholesale customers for energy purchased from the spot market.” That is good news as various players using fossil fuel sources like coal, natural gas, and oil, are fiercely competing with each other in generating electricity. WESM was created by EPIRA of 2001.

On the same day, the Department of Energy (DoE) posted a “Request for comments on the draft Department Circular entitled ‘Declaring the launch of WESM in Mindanao’ (on Jan. 26, 2016) and providing for transition arrangements.” Another good news because finally, there will be a formal spot market for power producers and electric cooperatives that will guide a competitive and deregulated market, benefitting the consumers.

Last Dec. 23, 2016, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) posted a request for public comments until Dec. 30 regarding the petition of three wind developers — Trans-Asia Renewable Energy Corporation (TAREC), Alternergy Wind One Corporation (AWOC), and Petrowind Energy, Inc. (PWEI) — that their feed in tariff (FiT) or guaranteed price for 20 years of P7.40/kWh be raised to P7.93/kWh, citing various cost escalations. That was bad news because expensive electricity is never a virtue. I sent a letter to ERC Commissioner Salazar arguing that they say No to the petition.

And last Dec. 6, 2016, the ERC published in a newspaper a National Transmission Corp. (TransCo) petition asking for a FiT allowance (FiT-All) of 22.91 centavos/kWh starting January 2017. That’s also bad news because FiT payments by consumers keep rising fast. From an introductory price of only 4 centavos/kWh in 2015, became 12.40 centavos/kWh in 2016, and almost 23 centavos/kWh this year.

Now two factors will raise the FiT-All for 2017 beyond 23 centavos. (1) ERC will not be able to act on this by January or not even February 2017, that means there will be price underrecoveries that must be added to the original requested price. And (2) with low WESM prices the past few months — P3.19/kWh last September, P2.91/kWh last October, P2.54/kWh last November (data from Meralco), and the P2.28/kWh ESSP last December — this means that FiT-All will go up. This allowance is the difference between FiT rates (highest prices are solar of P10+/kWh this year due to price escalation, followed by wind, then biomass, cheapest is run of river hydro) and average WESM prices. Or FiT-ALL = FiT rates — WESM prices

Expensive electricity is the hallmark of renewable energy favoritism anywhere in the world.

Understand that in my previous columns, it was shown that the main beneficiaries of expensive electricity from renewables in the Philippines are not ordinary firms but huge companies: the Lopez group (EDC Burgos wind) and Ayala group (Northern Luzon UPC Caparispisan wind, and Northwind Bangui) who got P8.53/kWh FiT and combined revenues of about P4.3 billion in 2015 alone.

Let us check Germany’s renewables output. The chart below is for the last three months, Oct. 23, 2016 to Jan. 22, 2017.

Last Jan. 8, its total electricity consumption was 57.4 GW and here are the renewables output that day: solar 0.23 GW, onshore wind 1.53 GW, and offshore wind 0.39, or a total output of only 2.15 GW from these three renewables (see chart).

o4big_012417

A total of only 2.1 GW was generated by solar-wind sources or only 3.7% of 57.4 GW power demand. If Germany relied solely on wind-solar, that would have meant massive, large-scale, and catastrophic blackouts. Germany of course was saved by the power plants that it wants to banish someday — fossil fuel sources like coal and natural gas plus nuke power, within Germany and from energy imports from its European neighbors — and which it kept running. So we did not hear or read such massive blackouts in Europe’s biggest economy.

Aside from expensive direct cost of wind and solar in Germany due to FiT, there is additional indirect cost of higher transmission cost. From a news report, “The Energiewende is running up against its limits” last Oct. 21, 2016 (http://energypost.eu/energiewende-running-limits/)

“German transmission system operator Tennet recently announced an 80% increase in its transmission fees because of the high construction costs of new power lines to accommodate renewable energy. A study of the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics found that by 2025 costs of the Energiewende could exceed €25,000 for an average four-person household.”

The Joint Congressional Power Commission should consider introducing a law in the future that will abolish the RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513). Penalizing the energy consumers to further enrich the favored and crony firms in renewable energy is wrong.